India may face a big challenge if it is forced to stop buying cheap oil from Russia. The United States and NATO have warned countries like India, China, and Brazil about strict actions. They have said that if these countries keep buying oil from Russia, they could face up to 100% tax (tariff) on oil imports.
Russia is currently at war with Ukraine. Because of this, Western countries like the USA and European nations have banned Russian oil. But India took this as an opportunity to buy cheaper oil from Russia. This helped India reduce inflation and keep the economy stable, even when oil prices were high in the world market.
Why Russian Oil Matters to India
India imports over 85% of its crude oil. In the last three years, Russia has become India’s top oil supplier, offering oil at a discount. In 2021-22, only 2.1% of India’s oil came from Russia. But by 2024-25, this number has grown to 35.1%.
Buying cheaper oil helps India save money and reduce fuel prices for its people. If India suddenly stops buying Russian oil, it could lead to a major economic crisis.
What is the U.S. Threat?
The U.S. and NATO want Russia to make peace with Ukraine. To pressure Russia, the U.S. has warned of putting 100% tariffs on countries that still buy oil from Russia. This is called a “secondary sanction.” NATO chief and former U.S. President Donald Trump have both sent warnings to India, China, and Brazil.
But India has not shown fear. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that India is not worried by these threats. He believes these warnings are a strategy to force Russia into peace talks. He also said there is enough oil in the market and prices may come down soon.
What If India Stops Buying Russian Oil?
If India stops Russian oil imports, global oil prices could rise sharply, possibly reaching $120-$130 per barrel. This would hurt not only India but also other countries that depend on oil. Puri said that to control oil prices, the world must either reduce oil use by 10%—which is impossible—or buy more from other countries, which would make oil even costlier.
Experts also point out that European countries still buy Russian oil, but they do it through other countries, secretly. This means not everyone follows the same rules.
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Can India Manage Without Russian Oil?
It would be difficult. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia sells most of its oil to China (47%) and India (38%). Stopping this would leave a big gap. India would have to look for new suppliers, which could be more expensive.
Also, if tariffs are applied, it will increase the cost of oil imports from the U.S., which will then impact American consumers. This could hurt the U.S. economy and create political problems for leaders like Trump.
Is This Just a Political Game?
Some experts believe Trump’s tariff threat is more of a negotiation tactic than a real decision. He wants to pressure Russia into talking. But if India and China really face 100% tax, the global oil supply chain will be shaken, and even U.S. politics could be affected.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a double role—talking peace on the phone while continuing the war in Ukraine.
Conclusion
India is in a tough spot. Stopping oil imports from Russia will hit the economy and increase fuel prices. But if it continues buying, it may face high tariffs. For now, India is firm on its position, trying to balance national interest with global pressure.
Disclaimer: This article is based on public news reports and expert views. It is meant for general information only and does not reflect any official government stance or policy decisions.
